TradeSports, the online trading and betting exchange that is currently offering lines on Saddam Hussein, has turned its attention from Baghdad to Washington by speculating on the next occupant of the White House.
A line on George W. Bush being re-elected in 2004 is trading at 63 on the 0-100 odds scale, which means if you stake 63 (or $630) and you are right you will win $37. 63 means that traders believe Bush has a 63 percent chance of winning a second term. Belief in Bush's re-election prospects has been rock-solid since the line was launched on January 24th at an opening price of 65.
Since then, the contract has traded between 62 and 67, indicative of market sentiment that while he is not invulnerable to a challenge, the Democrats have yet to unearth a formidable opponent.
It is likely that a commencement of hostilities in Iraq would boost Bush's popularity rating and with it his chances of re-election. A quick victory over Saddam would more than likely send the contract soaring towards 70. In that case, traders who had bought at a lower level could then take the opportunity to make a profit by selling at the higher figure. "Buy low, sell high".
What of the Democratic challengers? TradeSports has lines on each of them, too.
Recent trading patterns offer strong encouragement to Senator Joe Lieberman. The line on Lieberman winning the nomination opened at a price of only 9 back in November, but has subsequently climbed to 32.
To convert 0-100 odds to Moneyline click here.
Lieberman's popularity on TradeSports reflects his rise in the opinion polls. TradeSports argues that its contracts are a more reliable indication of a candidate's chances because its 9,000 customers are staking real money on the outcome of events.
As Lieberman increased in popularity, the big loser has been Senator John Kerry. The Kerry line opened at 33 (+200 moneyline) and shortly before Christmas it reached 54 (-117). Since then, however, Kerry has been in freefall and can now be bet at just 28 (+260).
The fall can be attributed to concern's about Kerry's health. He has recently undergone treatment for prostate cancer. Concerns about the way Kerry publicly handled the question of his well-being may also have hurt him. When a reporter asked him on January 30 if he was sick, he denied it.
TradeSports also has a line on that dark horse, Senator Hillary Clinton that she will dramatically declare herself to be a candidate. You can bet that she will get the nomination or you can bet that she won't. You decide.
A recent poll asked respondents: 'Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004?' The results were eye-catching.' Clinton dominated, with 42 percent of the vote, with Lieberman a bad second on 15 percent and Kerry trailing in third on 11 percent.
Although the line on her winning the nomination jumped from a low of 3 (+3230) up to 10 (+900) before Christmas, it has subsequently fallen back to 7 (+1330).
Of course, a head-to-head between Clinton and Bush would make for electrifying trading on TradeSports, but as yet nobody's betting on that happening. Clearly, traders do not believe Mrs. Clinton will enter the race.
Article by Alan English. TradeSports is a person-to-person (P2P) sports betting and trading exchange.
